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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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The US is establishing a "Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve" (private sector funded, $10B loan/$2B equity) and creating a "club of nations" with price floors to stop Chinese dumping. The administration is explicitly backing domestic mining ("Mine, Baby, Mine") and protecting price stability for miners against China's dominance. This creates a government-backed floor for the sector. LONG US Mining / Critical Minerals. China retaliating with export bans or aggressive undercutting before price floors take effect. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 02/11/2026...
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Feb 11, 2026
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AVOID
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The administration views offshore wind as intermittent, expensive, and a national security risk (radar/sonar interference). They intend to remove subsidies and stop permitting. Without tax subsidies, the sector is "not viable." AVOID / SHORT Offshore Wind developers. Courts ruling against the administration's stop-work orders. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 02/11/2026...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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The administration is reversing the EPA "endangerment finding" on CO2 emissions. This regulatory rollback allows coal plants to remain open to provide baseload power for the AI arms race. "Energy Addition, not Subtraction." LONG Coal / Utilities with coal assets. Legal challenges from environmental groups delaying the regulatory rollback. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 02/11/2026...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Burgum emphasizes "picking reliable, affordable nationally-secure sources" to meet the needs of "industry and what we need for AI," while rejecting "intermittent" sources. "Reliable" and "Nationally-secure" are code for domestic fossil fuels (Oil, Gas, Coal). If offshore wind (a major planned source of future capacity) is subtracted from the grid, the massive power demand from AI data centers must be met by dispatchable thermal energy. Long US Oil majors (XOM, CVX), E&Ps (DVN, CTRA), and Coal (BTU, CEIX) as the beneficiaries of the "baseload" pivot. A sudden breakthrough in battery storage technology making solar/onshore wind fully dispatchable. |
Bloomberg Markets
Offshore Wind Farms Are Security Risks, Burgu...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Burgum justifies blocking wind farms because "warfare has changed... everything is autonomous." He specifically mentions the need for clear operating environments for "autonomous drones" and "autonomous submarines." The administration is prioritizing the operational capability of next-gen autonomous defense systems over energy infrastructure. This signals robust funding and strategic focus on the autonomous defense sector. Long Defense (ITA) as the primary beneficiary of this "security-first" industrial policy. Budget cuts in other areas of defense spending. |
Bloomberg Markets
Offshore Wind Farms Are Security Risks, Burgu...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Burgum explicitly links energy policy to "what we need for AI." The administration acknowledges AI as a strategic national priority requiring massive power. By clearing "intermittent" obstacles and favoring baseload power, they are paving the way for faster data center energization. Vertiv (VRT) provides the critical power/cooling infrastructure that benefits from this reliable energy supply. Long AI Infrastructure. AI capex slowdown. |
Bloomberg Markets
Offshore Wind Farms Are Security Risks, Burgu...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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Burgum states the administration is stopping subsidies for "intermittent weather-dependent, foreign-sourced" energy and explicitly cites a classified report that offshore wind creates "radar interference" and "sonar interference" which are "national security risks." The removal of subsidies destroys the unit economics of offshore wind, but the "National Security" designation is a kill-shot. It creates a regulatory hard-stop that prevents permits regardless of private funding. GE (major turbine manufacturer) and developers face project cancellations and stranded assets. Short/Avoid exposure to offshore wind equipment manufacturers and developers. Courts could overturn the administration's "stop work" orders, though Burgum explicitly states they will appeal and use classified info to win. |
Bloomberg Markets
Offshore Wind Farms Are Security Risks, Burgu...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Burgum announces the creation of a "Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve" for 60 elements, funded by private sector capital but backed by government "price floors" to block China from "illegal dumping to kill the price." The primary risk for Western miners has been China crashing spot prices to bankrupt competitors. A US-guaranteed price floor effectively creates a "government put option" on production, de-risking capital expenditure for domestic miners of Rare Earths (MP), Copper (FCX/SCCO), and Lithium. LONG. The removal of downside price risk via government policy is a massive structural catalyst for US/Allied miners. Implementation delays or legislative hurdles in funding the reserve. |
Bloomberg Markets
Coal Kept the Lights On During Storms, Burgum...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Burgum states "Coal was the hero" during recent storms and explicitly mentions the "reversal of the endangerment finding," calling EPA regulations a "massive overreach." The "Endangerment Finding" is the legal bedrock for EPA CO2 regulations. Reversing it or rolling back these rules halts the forced retirement of coal plants. If plants stay open longer to provide baseload power for AI/Data Centers, the terminal value of US coal producers (Peabody, Arch, Consol) re-rates significantly higher. LONG. The sector is priced for liquidation; policy shifts it to "cash cow" status. Utilities may still retire plants due to ESG mandates or cheaper natural gas, regardless of federal permission to keep them open. |
Bloomberg Markets
Coal Kept the Lights On During Storms, Burgum...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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Burgum cites a classified report stating offshore wind causes "radar interference above the water and sonar interference below," labeling it a "National Security risk" and confirming the administration will appeal court rulings to reinstate stop-work orders. While economic arguments (subsidies) can be debated, a "National Security" designation is a regulatory kill-switch that is difficult to fight in court. If the DoD opposes offshore wind, permits will be revoked or denied, stranding billions in capex for developers. SHORT / AVOID. The sector faces not just subsidy removal, but an existential permitting ban. Courts may rule against the administration's national security claims; state-level mandates could sustain some projects. |
Bloomberg Markets
Coal Kept the Lights On During Storms, Burgum...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Burgum argues the US is in an "AI arms race with China" and needs "Energy Addition," criticizing the shutdown of "baseload" in favor of "intermittent" sources. AI data centers require 24/7 uptime (baseload). The administration's policy explicitly favors keeping existing thermal and nuclear plants online to feed this demand. Utilities with existing baseload capacity (Vistra, Constellation) become critical infrastructure assets with pricing power. LONG. Demand (AI) is rising while the administration prevents the supply (Baseload plants) from shrinking. Lower natural gas prices could compress margins for merchant power producers. |
Bloomberg Markets
Coal Kept the Lights On During Storms, Burgum...
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